Bihar’s fate hangs in the balance as the election results for 2025 are about to be unveiled. Will Chief Minister Nitish Kumar retain his position, or will there be a dramatic ouster? The Election Commission is set to count the votes, and the outcome could shake up the political landscape.
The Battle for Bihar
The Election Commission of India is all geared up to begin the vote-counting process for the 243-member Bihar Assembly at 8 am. While most exit polls predict a clear victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Opposition Mahagathbandhan remains defiant, confident of their ability to defy the projections and seize power.
The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United), and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), is the incumbent alliance. On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan, primarily consisting of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, is determined to challenge the ruling coalition.
The former Bihar deputy chief minister, Tejashwi Yadav, is the face of the INDIA bloc, but the NDA has not declared its chief ministerial candidate. All eyes are also on Nitish Kumar’s future, with the Opposition claiming that he might not return as chief minister, even if the NDA wins.
Key Contenders and Controversies
The major players in this political drama include the BJP, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Meanwhile, the Opposition INDIA bloc consists primarily of the RJD and the Congress.
Poll analyst Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) has also entered the fray, adding an intriguing twist to the election.
Key Points to Watch
- Vote Counting Time: The Election Commission will start counting votes at 8 am, beginning with postal ballots and then moving on to Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). While the official results may not be declared today, we can expect a clear indication of the winner by evening.
- Majority Mark: In the 243-seat House, the simple majority mark is 122. This means that a party or alliance needs to secure a win in at least 122 constituencies to form a government.
- Key Battles: Keep an eye on RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav’s stronghold, Raghopur, where he is contesting for the third time. The Mahua seat, where his estranged brother is a candidate, and the Alinagar seat, where the BJP has fielded popular folk singer Maithili Thakur, are also crucial battlegrounds. Additionally, constituencies in the Seemanchal region, including Kishanganj, Purnia, Araria, and Katihar, will be hotly contested.
- Exit Polls: Most pollsters predict a comfortable win for the NDA, projecting them to keep the Mahagathbandhan below the majority mark. However, there’s a twist: Axis My India predicts a narrow victory for the NDA, while Journo Mirror predicts a win for the Mahagathbandhan, with the INDIA bloc alliance expected to cross the majority mark comfortably.
- Voter Turnout: The Bihar assembly elections were held in two phases, on November 6 and 11. The first phase saw a 65.08% turnout, while the second phase recorded a remarkable 69.20% turnout, the highest in Bihar’s electoral history since 1951.
- Controversial Remarks: Just before the election results, an RJD leader sparked controversy by suggesting a “Nepal-like situation” could emerge if vote counting is halted. This remark, in reference to the GenZ protests in Nepal, has caused a stir.
- Candidates in the Fray: A total of 2,616 candidates contested across 243 Assembly constituencies in Bihar. While 1,302 candidates vied for 121 seats in the first phase on November 6, the remaining 1,314 candidates competed for the final 122 seats on November 11.
Security Measures and Preparations
The Election Commission has implemented a three-layer security system at strong rooms ahead of the vote counting, which is scheduled to begin at 8 am. Adequate Central Armed Police Forces have been deployed at all entrances and sensitive areas, with continuous patrolling by over 200 jawans. Victory processions have been prohibited, and section 163 of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS) has been invoked, restricting gatherings of more than four people.
A Controversial Prediction
But here’s where it gets controversial: while most exit polls favor the NDA, one news portal, Journo Mirror, predicts a victory for the Mahagathbandhan. This portal predicts that the INDIA bloc alliance will comfortably surpass the majority mark, securing 130-140 seats, while the NDA is projected to get 100-110 seats.
This prediction has been dismissed by the Mahagathbandhan as an attempt to create a “psychological impact.”
The Final Hours
As the hours tick by, the tension builds. The Election Commission has made extensive arrangements across 46 counting centers in Bihar’s 38 districts. A two-tier security system is in place, with 24/7 CCTV surveillance. The EVMs and VVPATs used in the elections have been sealed inside strong rooms under a double-lock system.
The counting of votes will begin at 8 am, and we can expect early trends by 9 am. The Election Commission of India will announce seat-wise results throughout the day, giving us a clear picture of Bihar’s political future.
And this is the part most people miss…
The Bihar elections are not just about the NDA versus the Mahagathbandhan. They are a reflection of the state’s diverse political landscape, with new parties like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party entering the fray. The outcome will shape the future of Bihar’s governance and potentially impact the national political scene.
So, who will prevail? Will Nitish Kumar return as Chief Minister, or will there be a new face at the helm? The answers are just hours away.
What are your thoughts on these election results? Do you think the exit polls will be accurate, or will there be a surprise twist? Share your predictions and opinions in the comments below!